WP 10: Foresight

General Information

The overall objective is to provide foresight on future development of FNS in the EU based on:

  • Future scenario narratives translation into quantitative model drivers;
  • Implementation of the SUSFANS toolbox to individual challenges faced by the EU FNS in order to explore in depth their potential effects;
  • Quantification and assessment of a wide range of agro-food policies with respect to their capacity to contribute to the sustainable FNS in the EU;
  • Comprehensive assessment of selected holistic future development scenarios and relevant agro-food policy responses in short and long term.

Latest Publication

Deliverable 10.4: Foresight of EU sustainable food and nutrition security: the interplay between major challenges and policy responses at different spatiotemporal scales

This deliverable reports on Task 10.4. Based on a quantification of a the combinations of future challenges and policies, it delivers summary challenges and efficient policy solutions for the EU sustainable FNS, stakeholder knowledge and priorities to ensure its suitability for decision

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Deliverable 10.2: Quantified future challenges to sustainable food and nutrition security in the EU

The aim of this paper is to provide a forward looking assessment of the baseline and alternative contextual scenarios in terms of their impacts on the sustainability of European Union's food and nutrition security. Our approach, on the one hand, allows to identify the future challenges and opportunities for the EU agro-food sector, and on the other hand provides a basis against which agro-food policies and innovations can be tested and evaluated in terms of their contribution to sustainable development.

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Deliverable 10.3. The potential role of producer and consumer food policies in the EU to sustainable food and nutrition security

The aim of the research presented in SUSFANS D10.3 is threefold: (1) We identify a set of interesting and relevant policies in the areas of EU health and nutrition, agricultural, fisheries, and storage, i.e. market stabilisation, policies. (2) The SUSFANS modelling toolbox is applied. This gives the possibility to test and debug the most recent model developments following from previous SUSFANS work and identify further necessary improvements towards the end of the project. (3) We test the selected policy measures and assess their impacts on the EU agrofood system applying the SUSFANS metrics framework. Our results show, how the assessed policies may impact EU producers and consumers and how these can contribute to improving sustainability in the food system. Different established macro models are applied for the foresight analysis of the various policies. The policies tested are distinct from each other and are not run with all models available in the toolbox. In this sense, the presented research serves as a pre-test for the final foresight work in SUSFANS which will involve combined approaches of policies and models. Nevertheless, our results give already an insight on the directions of impacts as well as on the applicability and quantifiability of the metrics framework.

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Deliverable 10.1: Quantified SUSFANS scenario drivers ready to be used by the modeling toolbox

This deliverable quantifies the most relevant scenario narratives spanning across the range of future challenges for the EU sustainable FNS for use in the SUSFANS toolbox.

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Work package leader

Petr Havlìk
Joost Vervoort

© Copyright 2015. METRICS, MODELS AND FORESIGHT FOR EUROPEAN SUSTAINABLE FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY - SUSFANS

 

H2020-SFS-2014-2,
Grant 633692