SUSFANS PUBLICATIONS

Journal articles

Paper Title Authors Journal Issue
Defining a land boundary for sustainable livestock consumption Hannah H. E. Van Zanten, Mario Herrero, Ollie Van Hal, Elin Röös, Adrian Muller, Tara Garnett, Pierre J. Gerber, Christian Schader, Imke J. M. De Boer Global Change Biology Volume24, Issue 9, September 2018, Pages 4185-4194
Operationalising the health aspects of sustainable diets: a review Elly Mertens, Pieter van’t Veer, Gerrit J Hiddink, Jan MJM Steijns and Anneleen Kuijsten Public Health Nutrition Volume 20, Issue 4, March 2017 , pp. 739-757
Can Information about Health and Environment Beef Up the Demand for Meat Alternatives? Stéphan Marette, Guy Millet
Quality, market mechanisms and regulation in the food chain Stéphan Marette Bio-based and Applied Economics, [S.l.] v. 5, n. 3, p. 217-235, apr. 2017. ISSN 2280-6172.
Quality standards versus nutritional taxes: Health welfare impacts with strategic firms Vincent Réquillart, Louis Georges Soler, Yu Zang Journal of Health Economics Volume 50, December 2016, Pages 268-285
Spatial heterogeneity of the agricultural sector in economic models Marcel Adenäuer, Wolfgang Britz, Andrea Zimmermann
The vision of the SUSFANS project Martine Rutten, Thom J.Achterbosch, Imke J.M.de Boer, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Petr Havlík, Thomas Heckelei, John Ingram, Adrian Leip, StéphanMarette, Hansvan Meijl, Louis-Georges Soler, Johan Swinnen, Pieter van't Veer, JoostVervoorte, Andrea Zimmermann, Karin L. Zimmermann, Monika Zurek Agricultural Systems Volume 163, June 2018, Pages 45-57

Work package 10

- Title WP10: SUSFANS Drivers Database (ZIP)
Complete download of data in CSV format, metadata and overview -

- Work package 10

- Title WP10: SUSFANS Drivers Database (XLSX)
Supports a quick overview of the database. Datatype: Excel (*.xlsx) -

- Work package 10

- Title WP10: Quantified SUSFANS scenario drivers ready to be used by the modeling toolbox (PPTx)
Concept of SUSFANS Foresight Contextual scenarios Map of stakeholder scenarios to contextual scenarios Challenges to sustainable FNS in Europe Quantification of scenario drivers (visuals) Key assumptions for EU & World: Population growth, economic growth, food distribution inequality, technological change (crops and livestock), climate change impacts, climate change mitigation, policies (trade, agriculture, fishery) See: data file (open access) -

- Work package 10

Work package 12

- Title Workshop report: 4 th Stakeholder Core Group Workshop
The Workshop aimed to inspire the consumer oriented way of thinking facilitated by a stepwise approach and introducing the consumer drivers of food and dietary choice into prospective studies on the sustainability of the EU food system. The Workshop also evaluated and prioritized the consumer-oriented innovation pathways on fruit and vegetables in the EU and the project also wanted to receive feedback on the on going foresight work of SUSFANS. Furthermore, the Workshop also aimed to discuss the likely key outputs of the project and how these could be of use to the stakeholders and their organizations. Finally, the project team wanted to discuss with stakeholders how to deliver the outreach work of the project beyond the stakeholder core group itself asking the group to help shaping the key messages of the project to the different stakeholder communities and discussing how the group could play an ambassadorial role for the project. -

- Work package 12

- Title State of play in the SUSFANS project - second period
SUSFANS focuses on a number of core questions: How can we improve the food system of the EU, especially from the perspective of social, environmental and economic sustainability? How can we balance and encompass different views on balanced consumer diets and food and nutrition security in the EU? The research approach is built around the development of a set of metrics, models and foresight tools, which can be used to navigate through decisions on measures for achieving sustainable food and nutrition security. This approach results in a holistic, integrated and coherent vision of what entails sustainable food and nutrition security in the EU in a context of global change. It underpins a perspective on how EU policies on farming, fishing, food and nutrition could contribute to that vision with greater efficacy than today. -

- Work package 12

Work package 1

- Title SUSFANS WP1 “Conceptual framework and FNS sustainability metrics” Second Workshop
Ewert House, Ewert Place, Oxford, OX2 7SG, UK Mar 7-8/2016 Overall chair: John Ingram (UOXF) Rapporteur: Monika Zurek (UOXF), John Ingram (UOXF), Joost Vervoort (UOF) The first part of the afternoon of Mar 7th was used to update meeting participants on the progress of the project since its beginning. After a welcome by John Ingram and a round of introductions, project coordinator Thom Achterbosch gave a presentation on project activities over the first year of the project and on the schedule of deliverables over the next year. These include two deliverables for WP1, namely a paper on the SUSFANS conceptual framework (D1.1) and on the metrics for assessing sustainable FNS (D1.2 and D1.3). Particularly the work on finalizing the metrics was the focus of this workshop. -

- Work package 1

- Title Report of the 1st Stakeholder Core Group Workshop
Report of the 1st Stakeholder Core Group Workshop with a summary of the Workshop and Stakeholder Recommendations. The first SUSFANS stakeholder workshop brought 42 participants together of which roughly 60% were representatives of different stakeholder groups and the rest researchers from the various research teams involved in the project. The stakeholder group was constituted of about a quarter of food system actors, such as primary producer and the food processing industry. The largest group of stakeholders present were so-called food system influencers such as civil society organization and advocacy groups working on food issues. In addition, a small number of EU policy makers (DG Research, DG Agri) joined the workshop. -

- Work package 1

Work package 11

- Title Newsletter 5
SUSFANS is entering the final phase of the project, the development of (an interactive demo of) the SUSFANS Visualizer as a web-tool has been initiated. It is planned to populate the tool with scenario results from the foresight report, and that we allow users to explore trade-offs between sustainability challenges and possible impact of policy changes or systems innovations. The resulting and already famous toolbox will be presented and discussed on a tour through Europe starting soon. Read more in this newsletter! -

- Work package 11

- Title Newsletter 4
The fourth Newsletter includes a preview of the forthcoming Stakeholder Core Group workshop in June 2017. Furthermore, features of the latest three deliverables which have been published. -

- Work package 11

- Title Newsletter 3
The third newsletter covers the progress of the project. One major achievement is that SUSFANS has entered into a partnership with FIT4FOOD2030, a new project for building the platform for dialogue on the FOOD2030 agenda of the EU. The newsletter includes a short summary of the year 2017 and research insights. -

- Work package 11

- Title Newsletter 2
The second newsletter answers research questions like: "What do European consumers think about sustainable food?", "Can information beef up the demand for meat alternatives?" or "Can we bank on seafood for a healthier food consumption?" It gives short summaries of the deliverables and papers, published during the last month -

- Work package 11

- Title Newsletter 1
The first Newsletter of 2016 on project updates and informative SUSFANS research -

- Work package 11

Work package 9

- Title Deliverable 9.6: The strengths and limitations of the SUSFANS metrics and models for assessing sustainable food and nutrition security in Europe
The SUSFANS model toolbox comprises state-of-the-art foresight and newly developed diet models for a holistic sustainability and dietary assessment. The toolbox is ready to assess the food system transitions to support healthy and sustainable diets of EU citizens. A future research agenda for the modelling of food system properties is proposed regarding modelling of food supply, consumer choices, global impacts and for assessing and communicating complex model results. -

- Work package 9

- Title Deliverable 9.5 The SUSFANS toolbox for assessing EU Sustainable food and nutrition security
The SUSFANS toolbox for assessing EU sustainable food and nutrition security provides a multidisciplinary instrument for analysing and monitoring SFNS in the EU, providing a set of mutually consistent indicators and signals for (un)sustainable food (in)secure situations. -

- Work package 9

- Title Deliverable 9.3: Enhanced modelling of sustainable food and nutrition security: food supply and use of scarce resources
This deliverable reports on Task 9.3 and describes the enhanced modelling of food supply and the use of scarce resources. The enhancements improve the analysis of sustainable food and nutrition security in response to (policy) shocks with regard to coverage and accuracy of sustainability metrics provided by long-run modelling tools in SUSFANS. -

- Work package 9

- Title Deliverable 9.2: Enhanced modelling of sustainable food and nutrition security: food consumption and nutrition behaviour of European households
This deliverable describes the enhanced modelling of food consumption and nutrition behaviour under constraints with a focus on European households and population health impacts of changes in diets. The demand side enhancements enable the analysis of SFNS over time and in response to (policy) shocks. -

- Work package 9

- Title Deliverable 9.1: Modelling Sustainability and Nutrition in Long Run Analyses of the EU Agri-Food system: Work plan for the SUSFANS Toolbox
This paper presents a plan for operationalising a modelling toolbox for the assessment of food and nutrition security and sustainability of the EU food system. The toolbox will be capable of: (1) Tracing nutrients in agriculture, fish, food and feed through the EU system; (2) Supporting foresight on EU diets and food production systems; (3) Capturing dimensions of sustainability by stage of the food supply chain (primary food production, food processing and consuming); (4) Providing entry points for policy and innovation by government, private sector, NGOs and the science community. -

- Work package 9

Work package 8

- Title Deliverable 8.4: Early warning systems for commodity markets
An agricultural commodity price and price volatility forecasting modelling system has been developed and applied for four agricultural commodities to perform forecasts on a horizon spanning from three months to one year. The forecasting system can be used as an early warning system based on seasonal and decadal simulated weather and climate forecasts in combination with financial and macro-economic projections. -

- Work package 8

- Title Deliverable 8.3: Forecasting Commodity Prices Under Specification Uncertainty: A Comprehensive Approach
We present a comprehensive modelling framework aimed at obtaining short-term forecasts (one to twelve months ahead) of commodity prices and apply it to short and medium run predictions of Arabica coffee, wheat, soybeans and corn. We entertain a large number of univariate and multivariate time series models, including specifications that exploit information about market fundamentals, macroeconomic and financial developments and climatic variables. A comprehensive set of forecast averaging tools is implemented to explicitly address model uncertainty. Our results indicate that variables measuring market fundamentals and macroeconomic developments (and to a lesser extent, financial developments) contain systematic predictive information for out-of-sample forecasting of commodity prices. -

- Work package 8

- Title Deliverable 8.2: Preliminary report on Task 8.2: prices forecasting model
We present a comprehensive modelling framework aimed at obtaining shortterm forecasts of commodity prices. -

- Work package 8

- Title Deliverable 8.1: The decomposition of agricultural commodity markets volatility between fundamentals and market speculation
We analyse the role played by market fundamentals, speculation and macroeconomic conditions as empirical determinants of commodity price changes. We combine model averaging techniques to explain historical patterns with an in-depth analysis of out-ofsample predictability of commodity prices using fundamentals as well as macroeconomic and financial variables. Our results indicate that variables related to global macroeconomic and financial developments contain valuable information to explain the historical pattern of coffee price developments, as well as to improve out-of-sample predictions of coffee prices. -

- Work package 8

- Title Deliverable 8.1: Fundamentals, Speculation or Macroeconomic Conditions? On the Determinants of Commodity Price Dynamics, with an Application to Arabica Coffee
We analyse the role played by market fundamentals, speculation and macroeconomic conditions as empirical determinants of commodity price changes. We combine model averaging techniques to explain historical patterns with an in-depth analysis of out-of-sample predictability of commodity prices using fundamentals as well as macroeconomic and financial variables. Our results indicate that variables related to global macroeconomic and financial developments contain valuable information to explain the historical pattern of coffee price developments, as well as to improve out-of-sample predictions of coffee prices -

- Work package 8

Work package 7

- Title Deliverable 7.5: The SHARP diet model and its application to different EU regions Working document including preliminary results
-This deliverable has not yet been published - The SHARP diet model makes use of individual-level dietary intake data of different EU countries to derive diets that are more environmentally Sustainable, Healthy, Affordable, Reliable, and Preferred by consumers. Options for dietary change are derived from existing efficient diets, hence within the boundaries of current dietary practices and realistic. The SHARP diet model proposes future EU diets that are both healthy and sustainable, and likely to be accepted by consumers #SHARP #die -

- Work package 7

- Title Deliverable 7.4: Toward modelling SHARP diets, based on nutritional adequacy, sustainability metrics and population diversity parameters
Diet modelling has been dominated by linear programming models for many years, however their success has been limited, while their inability to extract value from data in our information-driven world has become readily apparent. Increasing consumers’ diet healthiness has been the primary task of almost all diet models, however to actually change patterns of consumers’ purchasing behavior, models have to learn their preferences, so as to recommend diet alternatives that are both healthy, and appealing. We present our data-driven approach that leverages food item similarities as the main building blocks of diet recommendations, which arguably represents a paradigm shift in the way we optimize diets. Furthermore, we switch from exploiting what is known to be preferable (i.e. what we observe in a consumer’s diet), to exploring what is likely preferable, thereby allowing our diet model to “think outside the box”. -

- Work package 7

- Title Deliverable 7.3: Initial model for designing SHARP diets
Designing healthier diets is a complex process which can have substantial public health benefits.The intakes, but also the requirements of multiple important nutrients for different population groups should be taken into account. Moreover, the current dietary preferences of individuals should be considered to promote the acceptability of the diet. Diet models have been developed and used for designing suchhealthier and acceptable diets. The main objective of these models is to determine the optimal quantities of available food items that should be included in a diet to optimize a specific indicator (e.g. maximize a dietary quality index). Additional constraints are defined to improve the acceptability of the calculated diets. These constraints are either in the form of upper and lower limits to the intake of specific food-items or in the form of fixed combinations of food-items in meals. Defining such constraints explicitly is challenging and involves expert knowledge and a substantial degree of arbitrariness. To avoid defining such acceptability constraints we propose a DEA based diet model that benchmarks existing complete diets of a certain population and in our case identifies healthier alternatives. However, the model's flexibility allows for additional dimensions to be included, such as sustainability indicators and prices. The method was applied successfully to benchmark alternative diets of a group of individuals in the Netherlands. -

- Work package 7

- Title Deliverable 7.1: The initial model to design SHARP diets, based on nutritional adequacy and preliminary sustainability metrics
This paper collates food and nutrient intake data from Denmark, Czech Republic, Italy and France. Nutritional adequacy of the diets will be assessed using a protocol developed in WP2. This is the basis for the initial model to design SHARP diets, based on nutritional adequacy and preliminary sustainability metrics. -

- Work package 7

Work package 6

- Title Deliverable 6.3: A systematic analysis of social, economic and environmental sustainability metrics for the range of activities and world views encompassed in the EU food systems
Paper not yet released - SUSFANS proposes a multi-layered index of sustainability metrics for the assessment of the EU food system, food security and dietary habits. Based on a stakeholder-informed scientific attempt to create better insight in and to unveil the complexity of food systems, this report presents one of the core joint results of the SUSFANS research & innovation project. A simple and non-academic interpretation of the highest level of information in the index is provided below. -

- Work package 6

- Title Deliverable 6.1: The SUSFANS Stakeholder Core Group, drawn across different sectors and roles in European FNS
Establishing a Stakeholder Core Group (SCG). A SCG of about 40 organisations will be convened, drawn from suggestions from all SUSFANS WP leaders. Balance across stakeholder communities, food systems areas, countries and gender will be paramount. This SCG will spearhead the stakeholder interaction across WPs 1-5, with WP11, and with other WPs as appropriate. Other members will therefore be co-opted as needed. -

- Work package 6

Work package 5

- Title Deliverable 5.4: Sustainability impacts of potential innovations in the supply chain of livestock and fish, and fruit and vegetables, and sustainable future diets (Report on T5.4)
To assess different possible future directions for the EU food system, potential innovations were identified towards achieving sustainable healthy diets within the EU. The innovations focused on two cases, the ‘livestock and fish case’ and the ‘fruit and vegetable case’. For both supply chains there are concerns regarding the current European diet (excessive consumption of livestock and too low consumption of fruit, vegetables and seafood). For animal production, i.e. livestock and seafood, environmental concerns (land use, GHG emissions, fish stock depletion etc.) are particularly pressing. Based on the current production systems and stakeholder consultation, we assessed the following innovations: novel feeding strategies, including use of waste to increase circularity in livestock production, and the potential of non-conventional foods (e.g. insects), as the innovation pathway for animal-based production. For fisheries we assessed fishing sustainably as the future innovation. Innovations for ‘the fruit and vegetable case’ focussed on increasing people’s fruit and vegetable intake by stimulating a reduction of food waste. Our results demonstrate that livestock reared solely on biomass unsuited for human consumption could still provide a significant part of our daily protein need. Livestock feed is therefore largely decoupled from arable land reducing the pressure on arable land to produce food. Livestock fed with by-products, food waste and grass supplies 31 g of protein /(cap*d) (5 g from pork, 20 g from dairy, 6 g from dairy meat). An additional 1 g comes from fisheries and another 1 g from aquaculture (salmon) meat fed with slaughter waste and co-products from fisheries. This supply fulfils about 60% of our protein requirement. Requirements of omega-3 in the form of DHA and EPA are met by about 66% from salmon and captured fish. Collectively livestock and fish fulfil the full vitamin B12, which is only available in animal, fish products and some non-conventional foods. Calcium requirements are met by about 94%, iron by about 15%, zinc by about 61% and selenium by about 55%. The additional nutrients that we require can be met by consuming plant-based foods or non-conventional foods such as insects or algae. Our results showed that non-conventional foods contain the complete array of essential nutrients and may be better substitutes for animal-source foods than plant-source foods. Moreover, future foods are efficient use of limited land resources if substituted for animal-source foods, and if produced with renewable energy, they also offer benefits in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. Fishing sustainably and directing more of the catches to food directly has the potential to almost double food production and the nutritional contribution from EU fisheries. Our results therefore showed that combining animal-source food from animals that are not fed with human food, with additional non-conventional foods and plant-source food offer great potential to reduce the environmental impact of our food system while safeguarding our nutrient requirement. The results from the fruit and vegetable case, furthermore, showed that reducing food waste indeed reduces the environmental impact while it simultaneously indirectly simulates people to increase their fruit and vegetable intake and therefore contributes as well to more healthy diets. Our assessed innovation packages – feeding animals with products we cannot or do not want to eat, fishing sustainably, replacing the consumption of ASF with non-conventional food and plant-based food, and reducing food waste (especially fruit and vegetables) – provides a pathway towards achieving sustainable healthy diets within the EU. -

- Work package 5

- Title Deliverable 5.3: Innovation pathways towards more sustainable production and consumption in the fruit - vegetable supply chain and their uptake in the SUSFANS models
Fruit and vegetable consumption is below recommended levels and should increase to come closer to a more healthy and sustainable diet in Europe. The aim of this report is to identify innovation pathways in the fruit and vegetable chain from a consumer perspective. The deliverable shows the different elements of a consumer perspective, their relevance and above all the need to combine consumer, production and circular perspectives on innovation to support fruit and vegetables consumption. To understand or even stimulate consumption behaviour a wide array of drivers need to be taken into consideration, which relate to the individual (biological, demographics, psychological), the product, the interpersonal, physical environment and policy. These are represented in consumption-related innovations such as: targeting, motivating, contextual, communicating and acceptance of innovations; product related innovation such as: product, production, and package; and circular innovations (in particular around reducing food waste). This paper is meant to inspire, raise awareness, and continue the discussion on a strengthened consumer perspective in the innovation strategies, foresight and modelling work in SUSFANS. -

- Work package 5

- Title Deliverable 5.2: Innovation pathways towards future nutrition security: Innovation pathways towards more sustainable production and consumption in the livestock-fish supply chain and their uptake in the SUSFANS models
Our current dietary pattern especially animal source food (ASF), has a strong impact on the environment. Furthermore, in Europe, daily consumption of ASF protein is above dietary recommendation, resulting in an increased risk of chronic non-communicable diseases.The aim of this deliverable was to identify innovations that together can result in a pathway towards sustainable nutrition security by combining production-side strategies (reducing the environmental impact per kg of ASF produced), consumption-side strategies (changing consumption patterns of humans by reducing or replacing ASF), and the circular strategie, (focus on improving the circularity of the food system, and avoiding feed-food competition, and lies in between the production and consumption-side strategies). The paper identifies a set of innovations that has the potential to deliver a pathway towards sustainble healthy diets. These innovations comprise: including insects in livestock and fish feed; reducing meat intake and replacing beef with other ASF products including fish, and including novel protein source e.g. in-vitro meat; a circular strategy centred around using products unfit for human consumption in livestock feed. Data is presented that supports the assessment of the impact of these innovation options on the contribution of ASF in a sustainable and healthy diet, using the SUSFANS toolbox. Similar to this the role of captured seafood - fishing at equilibrium (sustainable yields)- in a suitable diet will be assessed. -

- Work package 5

- Title Deliverable 5.1: Baseline sustainability assessment of the current state of livestock/fish and fruit/vegetables supply chains
To assess different possible future directions for the EU food system, potential pathways based on a set of innovations need to be identified. The aim of WP5 is to define different pathways towards more sustainable and healthy diets within the EU, without negative implications in the rest of world. This first report of WP 5 makes the case for the two selected case studies based on the current situation, provides as first set of innovation pathways and explores the use of metrics in a spider diagram to assess sustainable FNS. The innovations focus on two cases, ‘livestock and fish case’ and ‘the fruit and vegetable case’. For both supply chains there are concerns regarding the current European diet (too high consumption of livestock and too limited consumption fruit, vegetables and seafood), whereas for livestock and fish production there are also pressing environmental concerns (land use, GHG emissions, fish stock depletion). -

- Work package 5

Work package 4

- Title Deliverable 4.7: Database on farm-level production and sustainability indices for assessing sustainable diets
This paper demonstrates that SUSFANS metrics for assessing the environmental sustainability of the European food system can be effectively produced and applied to assess policy measures and potential innovations that aim at achieving sustainable food and nutrition security in the European Union. The analysis points at important issues that need to be taken into account for the further development and application of metrics. -

- Work package 4

- Title Deliverable 4.6: Spatially explicit farm and environmental indicators at a scale of 1 km x 1 km
Land use diversity and soil erosion are amongst the aggregated variables required for describing environmental sustainability in the domains ‘biodiversity’ and ‘natural resources’. Both aggregated variables need to be quantified at high spatial resolution. The CAPRI model is able to do this, but the calculation procedure required improvements. This report describes basic features of the methodology, scrutinizes deficiencies in the current implementation and identifies possibilities to update and improve the method. -

- Work package 4

- Title Deliverable 4.5: The drivers of crop production at regional level in the EU: an econometric analysis
Crop production is the most crucial primary agricultural production activity for both food and nutrition security. Around 70% of the calories per capita and day come from plant-based products. The report provides a qualitative assessment of drivers of crop production and a quantitative analysis of crop yields in the EU. Crop yield trends are largely positive throughout the EU. Average efficiencies in yield exploitation are between 70 and 80% depending on the crop. Climate has mixed effects on crop yields and farm size, fertilizer and plant protection all clearly positively affect crop yields. -

- Work package 4

- Title Deliverable 4.5: The drivers of crop production at regional level in the EU: an econometric analysis
Crop production is the most crucial primary agricultural production activity for both food and nutrition security. Around 70% of the calories per capita and day come from plant-based products. The report provides a qualitative assessment of drivers of crop production and a quantitative analysis of crop yields in the EU. Crop yield trends are largely positive throughout the EU. Average efficiencies in yield exploitation are between 70 and 80% depending on the crop. Climate has mixed effects on crop yields and farm size, fertilizer and plant protection all clearly positively affect crop yields. -

- Work package 4

- Title Deliverable 4.4: Preliminary report on Task 4.4: drivers of crop production
Crop production is the most crucial primary agricultural production activity for both food and nutrition security. Around 70% of the calories per capita and day come from plant-based products. Besides its importance for direct human consumption, crop production is also crucial for producing feed for livestock and aquaculture. The report provides a qualitative assessment of drivers of crop production and preliminary work for a quantitative analysis of crop production in the EU. -

- Work package 4

- Title Deliverable 4.4: Crop production in the context of food and nutrition security
Crop production is the most crucial primary agricultural production activity for both food and nutrition security. Around 70% of the calories per capita and day come from plant-based products. Besides its importance for direct human consumption, crop production is also crucial for producing feed for livestock and aquaculture. The report provides a qualitative assessment of drivers of crop production and preliminary work for a quantitative analysis of crop production in the EU. -

- Work package 4

- Title Deliverable 4.3: Establishing a common accounting system for the LCA and emission leakage in the CAPRI model
The CAPRI model can be used in order to estimate GHG emissions from the agricultural sector in the EU. However, the calculation follows the logic of the UNFCCC framework, assigning emissions to production activities and the regions where those activities take place. In order to move from a production towards a more consumption oriented perspective we developed an LCA-module (Life cycle Assessment), both for EU and Non-EU regions, covering not only regional emissions but also emission leakage and worldwide emissions. -

- Work package 4

- Title Deliverable 4.2: The drivers of fisheries and aquaculture production in the EU
The role of seafood is complex in sustainable and nutritious diets. Production from c apture fisheries is limited whereas s eafood from aquaculture is seen as the most promising food production systems for the future. In this report, data on EU seafood production is provided, as well as a review of indirect and direct drivers for seafood produc tion in the EU. Several plausible directions for improved sustainability of seafood productio n in EU FNS are identified. Furthermore, metrics for environmental assessment of seafood in relation to EU policies on reduced environmental impacts are suggested . -

- Work package 4

- Title Deliverable 4.1: The drivers of livestock production in the EU
In the last decades the demand for animal source food (ASF) has increased. In response to a rising demand for ASF, animal numbers and animal productivity increased, due to science and technological developments. Currently we see that the demand for ASF is stagnating or decreasing due to socio-economic factors like environmental concerns, human health concerns and changing socio-cultural values (animal welfare). Given current high consumption levels of ASF in Europe, two main strategies can be followed to come to healthy and sustainable diets: reducing the impact of livestock production per kg of output by sustainable intensification, or improve human health and the environment by changing dietary patterns. -

- Work package 4

Work package 3

- Title Deliverable 3.6: The role of market power in the EU food supply chain
There is extensive debate on the position of farmers in the food chain and how global price volatility and increasing concentration up and down the value chain is affecting famers, taking into account increasingly complex vertically-related markets. Market concentration and technological advances are claimed to have shifted the balance of power in the food system to global retailers and other concentrated sectors. -

- Work package 3

- Title Deliverable 3.4: Firms’ strategies in food innovation and reformulation and their responses to regulatory nutritional policies
To deal with health issues related to food consumption, governments are implementing partnerships with the food industry to generate changes in the quality of foods, based for instance on the decrease in salt or fat contents. Some governments employ also more coercive policies, based on the ban of some ingredients, the implementation of quality standards, or advertising regulations. Are these policies focused on the supply side more promising than policies focused on consumers? Are market incentives sufficient to induce voluntary changes by firms or is public regulation of food quality needed to reach public health objectives? The goal of this task will be to deal with these questions, by combining conceptual models and empirical data collection. -

- Work package 3

- Title Deliverable 3.3: The role of the post-farm food chain for sustainability indices
The analysis of post-farmgate biomass streams is crucial for accurately quantifying the environmental impact associated with the food that we eat. It is also the pre-requisite for identifying opportunities to move into the direction of an agri-food system with low emissions and with closed nutrient circles. We identified a few areas where a full chain life-cycle assessment was not yet possible with the tools available: slaughterhouses, cereal processing, waste management systems and consumers. In this report we perform a literature review for each of these ‚pools‘ and compile data that can be used in ‚modules‘ that will be implemented for the SUSFANS toolbox. The assessment is based on – and further develops – the framework developed by the UN-ECE for the quantification of national nitrogen budgets. -

- Work package 3

- Title Deliverable 3.2: The role of different food chain actors on setting private food standards
Consumers, retailers and producers are giving increasing attention to ensure that production and processing activities are sustainable from an economic, social and environmental point of view. The goal of this task will be to analyze the role different actors in the food supply chain play in the establishment of food standards and their impact on the sustainability of the food supply chain. The analysis will consist of theoretical modelling and an empirical analysis. -

- Work package 3

Work package 2

- Title Deliverable 2.6: Simulations of diet recommendations and assessment of their economic, environmental and nutritional impacts.
We analyse ex-ante the sustainability effects of diet recommendations in France, Denmark and Finland to conclude that: 1- The promotion of several diet recommendations would improve social welfare; 2- Healthy-eating recommendations targeting consumption of fruits/vegetables, salt and saturated fat should be prioritized for promotion; 3- Although synergies dominate, trade-offs between environmental and health objectives occur in some cases ; and 4- The taste/utility cost of dietary change imposed on consumers should be included in the welfare analysis of diet recommendations. -

- Work package 2

- Title Deliverable 2.5: Consumer choice related to meat/fish consumption and their possible replacement by plant-based products: results from lab experiments and costbenefit analysis
The deliverable D2.5 analyzes the results of lab experiments conducted in France and Italy. We evaluate the impact of different types of information on participants’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) and quantity choices for both beef burger meat and soy burger meat. We conducted a lab experiment in France and Italy to elicit hypothetical WTP with a multiple-price list. Explanatory messages about the impact of beef and soy on health and environment were revealed to participants, before successive rounds of WTP determinations and quantity choices. Results show a very weak impact of successive rounds of messages on WTP for both beef and soy. However, these explanatory messages lead to a significant change in chosen quantities. These results are used for determining a cost-benefit analysis on the basis of a model of diet changes induced by the adoption of nutritional and environmental recommendations. We particularly show how both relative variations in willingness-to-pay (WTP) and relative variations in chosen quantities, following messages revealed in the lab, can be used for a welfare analysis. These variations are integrated in a market equilibrium model, as a possible demand shifter or as a non-internalized damage/benefit when consumers are ignorant. A related cost-benefit analysis studies the welfare impact of a nutritional recommendation or a tax mechanism. Results suggest that these regulatory tools have a significant impact on the variation of welfare and the reduction of beef consumption. 3 working papers provided in annex were written for precisely studying these issues of this deliverable. -

- Work package 2

- Title Deliverable 2.4: Preliminary report on Task 2.4: lab experiment on consumers choice
This deliverable presents the results of the first experiment conducted in France. The second experiment that will be conducted in Italy, and the cosbenefit analysis will be presented in the final version of the report, under the deliverable 2.5. Version -

- Work package 2

- Title Deliverable 2.3: Analysis of the online choice experiment on fruit and vegetables determining the importance of nutritional and environmental benefits and the level of information
In this deliverable we investigate consumers’ sensitivity to product information on fruit and vegetable products. Fruit and vegetable consumption is associated with better health and prevention of diseases (Guillaumie et al., 2012) and more knowledge is needed on how product information on fruit and vegetable products influences consumer choices. This study contributes to the existing literature by studying the combination of health and sustainability information. In light of dual process theories (ELM; Petty & Cacioppo, 1986; HSM; Chaiken 1980) we took both message content and message characteristics into account. -

- Work package 2

- Title Deliverable 2.1: Consumers’ knowledge about the determinants for a sustainable diet
The deliverable will report on Task 2.1. Drawing on the results of a web-survey, it will discuss the importance of incorporating national and regional habits into metrics and models for the SFNS diet. -

- Work package 2

Work package 12

- Title Deliverable 12.1 Consortium Agreement
Abstract: Strengthening food and nutrition security (FNS) in the EU requires a move towards a diet that supports sustainable food consumption and production. To gauge the policy reforms needed for this major societal challenge, the SUSFANS - consortium -

- Work package 12

Work package 11

- Title Deliverable 11: Communication Plan
This deliverable embodies the Communication Plan and will report on Task 11.1. The communication plan includes a long list of the future users of the SUSFANS toolbox and first clusters of regions and target groups. -

- Work package 11

- Title Deliverable 11.6: Feasibility and acceptance of SUSFANS Toolbox and results
Stakeholder workshops were held to increase awareness of the SUSFANS project outcomes and willingness to implement and consult the user toolbox in decision-making processes among stakeholders. Four workshops were held in France, Denmark, the Czech Republic, and Italy with in total 110 stakeholders from academia, national policy makers, industry, and NGO’s. We used a combination of general stakeholder workshops and specific group discussions with DEMOCs cards. Because of the complex and abstract structure of the SUSFANS toolboxes, the usability and feasibility outcomes were challenging for the stakeholders to discuss. Therefore, they were given future narratives of possible scenarios in the form of DEMOCS cards that helped workshops participants to come up with innovative ideas and propose further improvement, feasibility and acceptance of the SUSFANS toolboxes. Stakeholders appreciated the structured approach of SUSFANS to define sustainability in its four dimensions: environment, economics, cultural/social, nutrition/health. The SUSFANS visualizer was considered a useful tool to evaluate sustainability impacts of policies and support decision making of public policy makers in a more holistic and evidence based way. The toolbox was considered helpful to facilitate discussions between disciplines, countries, public and private on the health and sustainability outcomes, to have an informed discussion and get people to move. The abstract form of the toolboxes and the complexity, in combination with limited time to digest the provided information left participants with a challenge to foresee the exact application of the toolboxes in their daily practice. -

- Work package 11

- Title Deliverable 11.3 - First leaflet and press release
This deliverable embodies the first leaflet and press release. Results from Task 11.3. Dissemination materials include: a) two project leaflets, b) press releases on the project in English and translated into the partners‘ languages, c) two articles for specific magazines and relevant audiences, d) an entity poster or roll-up stand featuring the logo and key messages of the contract for use at booths and workshops, and e) a yearly electronic newsletter -

- Work package 11

- Title Deliverable 11.2 Logo and Website
Abstract : This deliverable will report on Task 11.2. The project website, including the project logo and a SUSFANS community on LinkedIn, will have an external and internal structure. The website will offer completed research output as well as provide key data tha t will allow the user to interact with the research findings -

- Work package 11

- Title Deliverable 11 .1 Communication Plan
Abstract: This deliverable embodies the Communication Plan and will report on Task 11.1. The communication plan includes a long list of the future users of the SUSFANS toolbox and first clusters of regions and target groups -

- Work package 11

Work package 10

- Title Deliverable 10.4: Foresight of EU sustainable food and nutrition security: the interplay between major challenges and policy responses at different spatiotemporal scales
This deliverable reports on Task 10.4. Based on a quantification of a the combinations of future challenges and policies, it delivers summary challenges and efficient policy solutions for the EU sustainable FNS, stakeholder knowledge and priorities to ensure its suitability for decision -

- Work package 10

- Title Deliverable 10.3. The potential role of producer and consumer food policies in the EU to sustainable food and nutrition security
The aim of the research presented in SUSFANS D10.3 is threefold: (1) We identify a set of interesting and relevant policies in the areas of EU health and nutrition, agricultural, fisheries, and storage, i.e. market stabilisation, policies. (2) The SUSFANS modelling toolbox is applied. This gives the possibility to test and debug the most recent model developments following from previous SUSFANS work and identify further necessary improvements towards the end of the project. (3) We test the selected policy measures and assess their impacts on the EU agrofood system applying the SUSFANS metrics framework. Our results show, how the assessed policies may impact EU producers and consumers and how these can contribute to improving sustainability in the food system. Different established macro models are applied for the foresight analysis of the various policies. The policies tested are distinct from each other and are not run with all models available in the toolbox. In this sense, the presented research serves as a pre-test for the final foresight work in SUSFANS which will involve combined approaches of policies and models. Nevertheless, our results give already an insight on the directions of impacts as well as on the applicability and quantifiability of the metrics framework. -

- Work package 10

- Title Deliverable 10.2: Quantified future challenges to sustainable food and nutrition security in the EU
The aim of this paper is to provide a forward looking assessment of the baseline and alternative contextual scenarios in terms of their impacts on the sustainability of European Union's food and nutrition security. Our approach, on the one hand, allows to identify the future challenges and opportunities for the EU agro-food sector, and on the other hand provides a basis against which agro-food policies and innovations can be tested and evaluated in terms of their contribution to sustainable development. -

- Work package 10

- Title Deliverable 10.1: Quantified SUSFANS scenario drivers ready to be used by the modeling toolbox
This deliverable quantifies the most relevant scenario narratives spanning across the range of future challenges for the EU sustainable FNS for use in the SUSFANS toolbox. -

- Work package 10

Work package 1

- Title Deliverable 1.4: A modelling strategy for quantifying the sustainability of food and nutrition security in the EU
This deliverable outlines a modelling strategy for quantifying metrics and methods for quantifying the sustainability of EU FNS. SUSFANS models are assessed in terms of data needs, their limitations and the questions they can address related to sustainable FNS in the short term and the long term. This assessment sets the scene for operationalization of the SUSFANS Toolbox. -

- Work package 1

- Title Deliverable 1.3: Sustainability metrics for the EU food system: a review across economic, environmental and social considerations
One of the main objectives of the SUSFANS project is to develop a set of concepts and tools to help policy and decision makers across Europe make sense of the outcomes and trends of the EU food system. This paper proposes a set of metrics for assessing the performance of the EU food system in delivering sustainable food and nutrition security. The performance metrics have been built up through the aggregation of a wide range of variables, which together help to monitor the achievement of four overarching policy goals for the EU food system, namely a balanced diet for EU citizens, reduced environmental impacts, competitive agri-food businesses and equitable outcomes of the food system. The project decided to take a hierarchical approach to aggregating from Individual Variables to Derived Variables to Aggregate Indicators to Performance Metrics. This approach aims at marrying the notion that decision makers want only a small but powerful set of metrics to communicate the findings of the assessment, with the need to substantiate these metrics with the best available data from a large number of sources in a transparent way. In this deliverable the current set up of the performance metrics focus on each individual policy goal. In a related report, the team explores if and how the performance metrics presented here can be quantified using available data and modelling tools, and which of the models of the SUSFANS tool box can estimate which ones of the performance metrics and how (report D1.4). In a final step the SUSFANS team will bring all performance metrics together in an integrated set that will allow a view across all four policy goals and thus across all aspects of sustainable food and nutrition security (forthcoming report D1.5). Further work is the quantification of metrics using case studies and prospective scenario analysis. In addition to their use for monitoring, the proposed metrics are geared towards quantification using selected computational modelling tools. As such, SUSFANS aims to assist in foresight on and the evaluation of transformative changes in the food system with rigour and consistency. -

- Work package 1

- Title Deliverable 1.2: Metrics to assess Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security in the EU - a progress report
Monika Zurek* (University of Oxford), John Ingram (University of Oxford), Martine Rutten (LEI Wageningen UR/Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs), Andrea Zimmermann (University of Bonn), Maria Garrone (University of Leuven), Inge Tetens ( Danmarks Tekniske U niversitet), Adrian Leip (European Commission, Joint Research Centre), Sara Hornborg (SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden), Petr Havlík (IIASA), Thom Achterbosch (LEI Wageningen UR), Joost Vervoort (University of Oxford), Anneleen Kuijsten (Wageni ngen UR), Lindsay Shutes (Wageningen UR), Louis - George Soler (INRA) -

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