WP 9: Long term modelling of sustainable FNS

General Information

The work package will provide foresight towards 2050 on sustainable EU FNS by improving long term models:

  1. To develop a work plan for operationalizing the framework for assessing EU SFNS (WP1, 2 to 4) in a quantitative toolbox (SUSFANS), with a focus on two major food supply chains; (WP5), which links enhanced European and global economic and biophysical models, including short term models (WP8), and micro models of EU balanced diets (WP7);
  2. To improve food demand modelling at the household level, building on WP2 and WP7;
  3. To develop the modelling of food supply, building on WP4;
  4. To enhance the modelling of the food chain, building on WP3;
  5. Building on task 1-4, to create the SUSFANS toolbox for assessing EU SFNS. The toolbox enables the consistent monitoring of EU SFNS in the short, medium and long term (up to 50 years) for use by case studies (WP5), foresight (WP11) and policy support (WP11).

Latest Publication

Deliverable 9.6: The strengths and limitations of the SUSFANS metrics and models for assessing sustainable food and nutrition security in Europe

The SUSFANS model toolbox comprises state-of-the-art foresight and newly developed diet models for a holistic sustainability and dietary assessment. The toolbox is ready to assess the food system transitions to support healthy and sustainable diets of EU citizens. A future research agenda for the modelling of food system properties is proposed regarding modelling of food supply, consumer choices, global impacts and for assessing and communicating complex model results.

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Deliverable 9.2: Enhanced modelling of sustainable food and nutrition security: food consumption and nutrition behaviour of European households

This deliverable describes the enhanced modelling of food consumption and nutrition behaviour under constraints with a focus on European households and population health impacts of changes in diets. The demand side enhancements enable the analysis of SFNS over time and in response to (policy) shocks.

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Deliverable 9.3: Enhanced modelling of sustainable food and nutrition security: food supply and use of scarce resources

This deliverable reports on Task 9.3 and describes the enhanced modelling of food supply and the use of scarce resources. The enhancements improve the analysis of sustainable food and nutrition security in response to (policy) shocks with regard to coverage and accuracy of sustainability metrics provided by long-run modelling tools in SUSFANS.

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Operationalising the health aspects of sustainable diets: a review

Shifting towards a more sustainable food consumption pattern is an important strategy to mitigate climate change. In the past decade, various studies have optimised environmentally sustainable diets using different methodological approaches. The aim of the present review was to categorise and summarise the different approaches to operationalise the health aspects of environmentally sustainable diets.

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Spatial heterogeneity of the agricultural sector in economic models

Recent food price spikes and their potential link to biofuel and increased food demand (e.g. Ajanovic, 2011; Gilbert, 2010; Mueller et al., 2011; Piesse and Thirtle, 2009; Zilberman et al., 2012), on-going land use changes, such as conversion of tropical forest to agricultural land, and their relation to Green House Gas Emissions (cf. Harvey and Pilgrim, 2011) and discussions around the so-called bioeconomy (e.g. Hertel et al., 2013; Sheppard et al., 2011; Zilberman et al., 2013) all have renewed societal and scientific interest in better understanding how agricultural land use reacts to price and policy signals. Consequently, economic models working on quite different scales and being based on different methodologies were extended in recent years to better deal with land use and management issues.

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Deliverable 9.1: Modelling Sustainability and Nutrition in Long Run Analyses of the EU Agri-Food system: Work plan for the SUSFANS Toolbox

This paper presents a plan for operationalising a modelling toolbox for the assessment of food and nutrition security and sustainability of the EU food system. The toolbox will be capable of: (1) Tracing nutrients in agriculture, fish, food and feed through the EU system; (2) Supporting foresight on EU diets and food production systems; (3) Capturing dimensions of sustainability by stage of the food supply chain (primary food production, food processing and consuming); (4) Providing entry points for policy and innovation by government, private sector, NGOs and the science community.

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